How is probability calculated?

If you need assistance with a technical issue, this forum is for you. Specifically for help with Torment: ToN itself. Spoilers are allowed, but spoiler warning tags are recommended.
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Joined: January 26th, 2016, 8:23 am

Please see the attached screenshot. Shouldn't the "Final difficulty" be 55%? Why is it 40%? What am I missing?

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Joined: April 10th, 2013, 6:43 am
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Is the error always -15% on this task, even when you use effort?

If so, I suspect the base difficulty is actually -15% but is shown as 0% (so a display bug, not a calculation one).
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