Analysis of Steam activity for BT4

[_noblesse_oblige_]

The tax credit is 40% on expenditures/salaries, if they spent 7.5 million on this game, that is $3million in that tax credit alone. Plus what ever tax credit they get for new jobs created in Louisiana as well.

https://www.doa.la.gov/opb/pub/FY19/FY1 ... Budget.pdf

Check out the governor's message in the LA budget: 1 billion in temporary revenue rolling off the books, according to the governor - a "fiscal cliff", he calls it. Page 1 of the budget shows that the state is not in good fiscal health. I really doubt that they are dishing out tax credits like you think they are, because the amount of tax revenue generated from whatever employment inXile created is not likely to balance out those credits, even over quite a long period of time.

And yes, it does matter where the money comes from, because it is only how much money actually was spent out of Inxiles own pockets that matter for when a game becomes profitable.

Subsidies may make the break-even point for profitability lower, but they don't change how effectively the money was spent. The point remains that the ratio of the game's peak users versus its budget does not look good. Achieving profitability sooner, due to subsidization, is nothing to be proud of - it's a bit like saying "hey everyone, I'm on welfare; look at the new Porsche I just bought!". Making a well-received game is actually something to be proud of.

If this games fails it will not be because of how different this game is to the originals,

Not solely. As has been pointed out numerous times, they didn't listen to much feedback on how to improve what they actually made either, they've had key distribution woes, they've had communication problems with regards to the various rewards bundles and how they would be distributed, and they've had significant bugs and technical shortcomings. There are whole slew of things contributing to a bad experience around this game. And they are all things from which lessons can be drawn. As to how much weight its difference from the originals carries, I don't know. You say that is not much, but I haven't seen you present any numbers to prove it, any more than I have seen you present any numbers to show much government money the company has received. You are working from speculation, not facts.

[eisberg]

The tax credit is 40% on expenditures/salaries, if they spent 7.5 million on this game, that is $3million in that tax credit alone. Plus what ever tax credit they get for new jobs created in Louisiana as well.

https://www.doa.la.gov/opb/pub/FY19/FY1 ... Budget.pdf

Check out the governor's message in the LA budget: 1 billion in temporary revenue rolling off the books, according to the governor - a "fiscal cliff", he calls it. Page 1 of the budget shows that the state is not in good fiscal health. I really doubt that they are dishing out tax credits like you think they are, because the amount of tax revenue generated from whatever employment inXile created is not likely to balance out those credits, even over quite a long period of time.

And yes, it does matter where the money comes from, because it is only how much money actually was spent out of Inxiles own pockets that matter for when a game becomes profitable.

Subsidies may make the break-even point for profitability lower, but they don't change how effectively the money was spent. The point remains that the ratio of the game's peak users versus its budget does not look good. Achieving profitability sooner, due to subsidization, is nothing to be proud of - it's a bit like saying "hey everyone, I'm on welfare; look at the new Porsche I just bought!". Making a well-received game is actually something to be proud of.

If this games fails it will not be because of how different this game is to the originals,

Not solely. As has been pointed out numerous times, they didn't listen to much feedback on how to improve what they actually made either, they've had key distribution woes, they've had communication problems with regards to the various rewards bundles and how they would be distributed, and they've had significant bugs and technical shortcomings. There are whole slew of things contributing to a bad experience around this game. And they are all things from which lessons can be drawn. As to how much weight its difference from the originals carries, I don't know. You say that is not much, but I haven't seen you present any numbers to prove it, any more than I have seen you present any numbers to show much government money the company has received. You are working from speculation, not facts.

Check out the website here about the tax incentives
https://louisianaentertainment.gov/

Going by peak numbers is also just speculation as well.

[ZiN]

It's quite obvious, that they wanted to be "the next big thing", like Darkest Dungeon, Slay the Spire, etc, while also trying to be AAA big boys. They also wanted ALL OF IT NOW! They could have made a true Bard's Tale IV (by Bard's Tale fans for Bard's Tale fans), from the $1.5M they got, to reestablish the series and get a solid fan base and strong word of mouth, then build from there, like true indie developers. 90% and above steam ratings are quite an achievement and in the long run will make lots of sales and boost interest. But no, they wanted everything and got nothing. I'm sorry, but I honestly think they deserve it.

[Gizmo]

I would say that if they tried to be like the originals chances are it would be a guaranteed failure unless they just kept to the 1.5 million raised for their budget.

The game was pre-paid; all they had to do was make it under budget. They could have made an acceptable game in Unity3d... For Bard's Tale, they could have made it with GameMaker. Krome's BT:Remaster is pretty fantastic; InXile should have made a [near] Grimrock clone in Unity3D for the visuals, and kept far closer to the series than they did. I can't imagine that they would have had nearly the expense.

*Is it possible that they —needed— to spend more money on the project, and expanded its cost to suit?

[Wintermute_of_Cof]

Hmmm...
BT4 - 2,200 peak Steam users, $1.5m kickstarter
Pathfinder - 16,000 peak Steam users, $900k kickstarter

Note that Pathfinder launched on three platforms simultaneously (Win/Mac/Linux) whereas BTIV is only on Windows. Pathfinder didn't show any signs of even rudimentary testing on Linux when it launched, of course, but I was at least able to download it.

[ZiN]

Note that Pathfinder launched on three platforms simultaneously (Win/Mac/Linux) whereas BTIV is only on Windows.

Yes, Owlcat actually delivered what they promised on kickstarter, as opposed to InXile who have yet to bring the game to Mac and Linux, as per their promise on Kickstarter. In addition, Owlcat was only a month late with their delivery, while InXile had an extra year of development on top of their estimated delivery.

Pathfinder didn't show any signs of even rudimentary testing on Linux when it launched, of course, but I was at least able to download it.

Not that Barrows Deep was any better on Windows, regarding testing and they still have a long way to go in fixing major and minor bugs and generally making the game playable.

[Tuoweit]

To give an example, Pathfinder: Kingmaker was released today and already has 284 reviews.

Pathfinder has a much larger "primed" audience of tabletop players eager for a cRPG experience than any potential Bard's Tale game ever had. That it has a relatively large initial response is not surprising in the least.

[Shismar]

Pathfinder has a much larger "primed" audience of tabletop players eager for a cRPG experience than any potential Bard's Tale game ever had. That it has a relatively large initial response is not surprising in the least.

Hmm, I used to play D&D stuff in any incarnation but I never heard of Pathfinder until the game released. I'll probably play it too, looks nice enough and the skill and combat system is supposed to be quite complex.

Concerning reviews and player numbers, the game has too many bugs and some unfortunate design decisions. It currently does not play well and that shows.

[PsychicMonk]

The game was pre-paid; all they had to do was make it under budget. They could have made an acceptable game in Unity3d... For Bard's Tale, they could have made it with GameMaker. Krome's BT:Remaster is pretty fantastic; InXile should have made a [near] Grimrock clone in Unity3D for the visuals, and kept far closer to the series than they did. I can't imagine that they would have had nearly the expense.

*Is it possible that they —needed— to spend more money on the project, and expanded its cost to suit?

It's probably due to the curse of being an AA studio instead of a small indie studio. Having to pay x hundred thousand $ for salaries each month they most likely have to focus on bigger projects with the potential to earn more money or they will go under.

[Gizmo]

This thing would seem to have had its profit built in. Could they not have built it and used the mark-up/profit—that was delivered (more or less) on day 1, to fund a separate project? It's not like they were commissioned, and had to turn it down for being too niche; they came to us, and sold it in advance.

IMO this was somewhat akin to offering an Etherlords, or a Magic The Gathering sequel, and delivering a Deadman's Hand or a Painkiller clone (in hopes of better mass appeal)—where the cards are just power-ups for special abilities during the level. Great games... but pathetic Etherlord's sequels.

**I honestly believe (but of course it's only an assumption) that leaving the legacy mode out of the game, was intentionally to not have it be seen in the game for the first sales; and to only add it later on [for us grognards] after it no longer matters.

I would love to be wrong; love to think that it was a choice to postpone that extra layer of complexity (that we now know was simply tacked on, and not part of the game from the initial design) for a smoother launch, but I doubt this. With it initially absent, it wouldn't show up in the reviews.

[PsychicMonk]

**I honestly believe (but of course it's only an assumption) that leaving the legacy mode out of the game, was intentionally to not have it be seen in the game for the first sales; and to only add it later on [for us grognards] after it no longer matters.

I would love to be wrong; love to think that it was a choice to postpone that extra layer of complexity (that we now know was simply tacked on, and not part of the game from the initial design) for a smoother launch, but I doubt this. With it initially absent, it wouldn't show up in the reviews.

They could have easily "hidden" the legacy mode features in some menu. Given the state of the game, I think they just couldn't delay the game any longer for whatever reasons and had to focus on whatever they thought is most important before the release.

[eisberg]

To give an example, Pathfinder: Kingmaker was released today and already has 284 reviews.

Pathfinder has a much larger "primed" audience of tabletop players eager for a cRPG experience than any potential Bard's Tale game ever had. That it has a relatively large initial response is not surprising in the least.

Plus to add Pathfinder had a much bigger marketing campaign because of thier publisher, as well heavy use of Chris Avellone in the marketing and he has a huge following.

[Drool]

To give an example, Pathfinder: Kingmaker was released today and already has 284 reviews.

Pathfinder has a much larger "primed" audience of tabletop players eager for a cRPG experience than any potential Bard's Tale game ever had. That it has a relatively large initial response is not surprising in the least.

ALL REVIEWS: Mixed - 65%

I guess this is either a very bad, or a very good comparison.

[eisberg]

To give an example, Pathfinder: Kingmaker was released today and already has 284 reviews.

Pathfinder has a much larger "primed" audience of tabletop players eager for a cRPG experience than any potential Bard's Tale game ever had. That it has a relatively large initial response is not surprising in the least.

ALL REVIEWS: Mixed - 65%

I guess this is either a very bad, or a very good comparison.

They have gone up 2% since the release of the hot fix patch. Good for them.

[_noblesse_oblige_]

Check out the website here about the tax incentives
https://louisianaentertainment.gov/

Not sure what you wanted me to look at, so I poked around for a bit and found this:

DIGITAL INTERACTIVE MEDIA AND SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT INCENTIVE STRONGEST IN THE NATION
The Digital Interactive Media and Software Development Incentive provides a 25 percent tax credit on qualified payroll for resident labor and 18 percent for qualified production expenditures. If the amount of tax credits exceeds the business’ state income tax liabilities, the business receives the balance as a refund or applicants can opt for 85 percent of the value earned as a rebate any time during the year. The incentive is inclusive of the development of consumer software, business and enterprise software, web-based applications, digital media and games, interactive devices, and consoles and embedded systems.

Would have to dig more to find out what a "qualified production expenditure" is. And, even though you said it wasn't related to income, the credits apply against the business income tax, as I suggested they would. Would have to read the fine print on this one. Not having had any income the past few years might not make them eligible for the credits in those years. Also, the Louisiana residency requirements are at least 6 months, and the tax credits only apply against payroll of those who have established residency in that state. Lots of factors here. Again, I really doubt that inXile is getting millions from that state.

Furthermore, check out this popup on their landing page:

Further, in accordance with state law (LA RS 47:6007):
For applications received on or after July 1, 2017, as a condition of receiving tax credits, state-certified productions shall be required to participate in a career-based learning and training program approved by the office. The list of approved providers and institutions can be found HERE. Please reach out directly to any of the provider(s) on this list and then submit a written action plan for approval.

This isn't a fiscally-strapped state handing out large amounts of candy for free. They want an investment back in their state.
Having creative talent and developers pay income tax back to the state after establishing residency is clearly not enough.

Going by peak numbers is also just speculation as well.

What's being speculated? The ratio of peak users to budget is something quantifiable with hard numbers.

[eisberg]

Check out the website here about the tax incentives
https://louisianaentertainment.gov/

Not sure what you wanted me to look at, so I poked around for a bit and found this:

DIGITAL INTERACTIVE MEDIA AND SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT INCENTIVE STRONGEST IN THE NATION
The Digital Interactive Media and Software Development Incentive provides a 25 percent tax credit on qualified payroll for resident labor and 18 percent for qualified production expenditures. If the amount of tax credits exceeds the business’ state income tax liabilities, the business receives the balance as a refund or applicants can opt for 85 percent of the value earned as a rebate any time during the year. The incentive is inclusive of the development of consumer software, business and enterprise software, web-based applications, digital media and games, interactive devices, and consoles and embedded systems.

Would have to dig more to find out what a "qualified production expenditure" is. And, even though you said it wasn't related to income, the credits apply against the business income tax, as I suggested they would. Would have to read the fine print on this one. Not having had any income the past few years might not make them eligible for the credits in those years. Also, the Louisiana residency requirements are at least 6 months, and the tax credits only apply against payroll of those who have established residency in that state. Lots of factors here. Again, I really doubt that inXile is getting millions from that state.

Furthermore, check out this popup on their landing page:

Further, in accordance with state law (LA RS 47:6007):
For applications received on or after July 1, 2017, as a condition of receiving tax credits, state-certified productions shall be required to participate in a career-based learning and training program approved by the office. The list of approved providers and institutions can be found HERE. Please reach out directly to any of the provider(s) on this list and then submit a written action plan for approval.

This isn't a fiscally-strapped state handing out large amounts of candy for free. They want an investment back in their state.
Having creative talent and developers pay income tax back to the state after establishing residency is clearly not enough.

Going by peak numbers is also just speculation as well.

What's being speculated? The ratio of peak users to budget is something quantifiable with hard numbers.

You do realize that Inxile has been making games for many years now, and they would have an income with their games being sold. Since they moved to Louisana in 2015, they have released Wasteland 2 Directors Cut, Mage's Tale, Tides Numera, and of course Bard's Tale IV.
Why you don't think they wouldn't get a credit when they moved to Louisiana more than 3 year ago, when the stipulations is 6 months is beyond me.

Saving money in taxes, and getting the rest as a rebate, is still going to be millions of dollars, and there is nothing that shows that Louisiana has stopped this program. So yes, it is very much reasonable to expect that they got millions over the years from Louisiana, especially since they obviously did use their program which is why you see Louisiana logo on the game.

What is being speculated on is what you think the peak numbers actually mean.

[_noblesse_oblige_]

Inxile has been making games for many years now, and they would have an income with their games being sold.

Income taxable by the State of Louisiana? I doubt it.

Since they moved to Louisana in 2015, they have released Wasteland 2 Directors Cut, Mage's Tale, Tides Numera, and of course Bard's Tale IV.

They didn't move to Louisiana. They opened an office there. They're still headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

Why you don't think they wouldn't get a credit when they moved to Louisiana more than 3 year ago, when the stipulations is 6 months is beyond me.

I didn't say that wouldn't get any credit, but that I highly doubt it is of the magnitude you believe it is.

there is nothing that shows that Louisiana has stopped this program.

No one claimed that they did.

So yes, it is very much reasonable to expect that they got millions over the years from Louisiana

Show me the numbers.

What is being speculated on is what you think the peak numbers actually mean.

OK... the peak number statistic, presented by Steam, is the greatest number of concurrent players seen online by them. Not having sales figures or information on the average time spent playing the game available (in a readily-compiled form), this serves as a useful proxy to estimate the overall reception of the game. A large number of peak users can mean something from a large number of people playing the game for short, non-overlapping periods of time to a smaller number of people playing the game for longer, overlapping periods of time. Either way, something is said about the overall reception of the game. If people rapidly lose interest in it (like I did), then it will be harder to achieve a good peak, even if there are a lot of people checking it out. Coupled with positive/negative review percentages (and common threads in review content), one can start to get a pretty good picture about whether the game is holding interest.

If your only metric for success is how many copies the game sells, then you are missing the bigger picture. If the game sells enough copies to break even, but many consumers don't like it, then it was not a success. A lot of consumers don't like this game.

[eisberg]

Inxile has been making games for many years now, and they would have an income with their games being sold.

Income taxable by the State of Louisiana? I doubt it.

Since they moved to Louisana in 2015, they have released Wasteland 2 Directors Cut, Mage's Tale, Tides Numera, and of course Bard's Tale IV.

They didn't move to Louisiana. They opened an office there. They're still headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

Why you don't think they wouldn't get a credit when they moved to Louisiana more than 3 year ago, when the stipulations is 6 months is beyond me.

I didn't say that wouldn't get any credit, but that I highly doubt it is of the magnitude you believe it is.

there is nothing that shows that Louisiana has stopped this program.

No one claimed that they did.

So yes, it is very much reasonable to expect that they got millions over the years from Louisiana

Show me the numbers.

What is being speculated on is what you think the peak numbers actually mean.

OK... the peak number statistic, presented by Steam, is the greatest number of concurrent players seen online by them. Not having sales figures or information on the average time spent playing the game available (in a readily-compiled form), this serves as a useful proxy to estimate the overall reception of the game. A large number of peak users can mean something from a large number of people playing the game for short, non-overlapping periods of time to a smaller number of people playing the game for longer, overlapping periods of time. Either way, something is said about the overall reception of the game. If people rapidly lose interest in it (like I did), then it will be harder to achieve a good peak, even if there are a lot of people checking it out. Coupled with positive/negative review percentages (and common threads in review content), one can start to get a pretty good picture about whether the game is holding interest.

If your only metric for success is how many copies the game sells, then you are missing the bigger picture. If the game sells enough copies to break even, but many consumers don't like it, then it was not a success. A lot of consumers don't like this game.

They'll still be reporting an income tax filing to Louisana every year, especially since they'll be paying taxes on their payroll itself anyways, and even if they didn't get an income, that just means they'll get more from the credits since none of the credits would go towards what they would owe on income taxes.


many people are having technical issues, and most of the negative reviews are based on that. Having technical issues does not necessarily mean they don't like the game.
Inxile and any other developer are a business, and success for a business is profit. So yes, if a game sells well enough to be profitable, then it is a success. Peak players cannot give you a proper accounting on sales total, you are speculating that it correlates to sales totals and profits.

[Applicator]

Well...? This was a given, wasn't it? The game is almost totally unlike the series that it was meant to continue. Bethesda did this with FO3, but they had a standing TES audience for whom they made it (and who would eat that stuff up)——as opposed to the Fallout fanbase; of which they have never seemed to give a damn, and who (in my experience) reciprocated this mostly with well deserved enmity and disgust.
_______

This BT game was marketed to Bard's Tale players, and it plays like Hearthstone (I am told). Do Hearthstone clones draw (and keep) a lot of players? (I had never heard of it before reading about it here.) You have to assume that the Bard's Tale players will be miffed, and not bother unless they have already backed it.

For some, it is buyer's remorse, and for others it's neutrality or choice-supportive bias; and then there is a group that are the ones that just have a genuine affinity for a new game; regardless of what it is. For these last ones, it has to be a really good game doesn't it? Is it one?

What makes (or breaks) a turn based game is that magical (skillful) quality of the addictive "just one more turn!". Bard's Tale 1-3 had this, does the new BT game inspire this same addictive need? I once played Disciples 2 for 18 hours non-stop; that one inspires the addictive need for just...one...more...turn!

I get the strong impression these days, that 'turn based' games are avoided by most, and the few great ones that grab hold of the disinclined are begrudgingly liked in spite of it—not because of it. So that limits the market from the outset.

I was under the mistaken impression that they were making the game for people who would actually shell out money on spec, for a Bard's Tale game. People who knew what it was, knew what it should mean, and gave them money anyway. (Like a guy demanding to buy a Ford Pinto.)


IMO for those people far less money needed to be spent on the project; and to have it stay far closer to home with its treatment of the series—just look at the praise returned from the money spent with Krome Studios. Now imagine a BT4 that was an incremental evolution on Krome's work, the way Krome's was an evolution on BT1-3; and the way WL2 can be interpreted as an evolution on FO:Tactics; and hopefully, the way WL3 might be an evolution (as opposed to a mutation) on WL2... Sadly WL2 was the mutation on WL1, as the new BT is of BT1-3—and 2005.

BT IV plays nothing like Hearthstone. There are no cards you draw and Hearthstone has no gear etc

[Gizmo]

BT IV plays nothing like Hearthstone. There are no cards you draw and Hearthstone has no gear etc

That's welcome news... but it's not what I'd read from various quotes—including quotes of Brian Fargo.

The original The Bard’s Tale was a classic turn-based game – you perform actions with your entire party and then it’s your foe’s turn. So it was: attack, attack, use item, defend, and then watch what happens. I don’t think these days this makes sense anymore; it’s a little too dull. Hearthstone is a good example of what we’re thinking about. You will have an opportunity to react on what is going on during your turn. That’s a big difference to me.

"There will be plenty of combat diversity and depth," Fargo said. "You look at something like Hearthstone, for example. It's sort of that going back-and-forth process, and you see the complexity and detail and strategy and nuance that can happen. It's really an amazing system. I love those modern influences. I took a lot away from that, and see things we need to do with our combat system."

Hearthstone meets Might & Magic in this distant descendant...

...inXile may have examined the marketplace and determined that older gamers who played the original series, now strapped for time, have gone on to play a lot of games like Hearthstone. So the new flow works well, even if it's not very similar to the action we saw in the original games...

I've never seen Hearthstone, so I couldn't really tell. When I looked at the gameplay videos, it seems to play like Frayed Knights—including the immortal PCs, and the pop-up loot bag [chest] at the end of the fights.