Skill check hidden modifiers? Or mechanics misunderstanding?

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hexrei
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Skill check hidden modifiers? Or mechanics misunderstanding?

Post by hexrei » January 25th, 2017, 7:07 am

I've felt that some weird stuff goes on on some of the various checks in the game. Obvs everyone feels this way sometimes due to the RNG god but I decided to run a very brief test.

I ran a series of trials of lockpicking on a door that my recruit had a 27% success and 35% critical failure. Ran twenty trials:

10 failures

8 critical failures

2 successes

On the surface it would seem like I am getting less than half the successes I should but around the right amount of critical failures. How are these stats calculated? Does every check roll first for fail/success and then for critical failures whether it succeeds or fails or what?

or is this just an anomaly that would balance itself out with more trials?

kilobug
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Re: Skill check hidden modifiers? Or mechanics misunderstanding?

Post by kilobug » January 25th, 2017, 8:11 am

I don't remember such an anomaly, there is a glitch around weapon stripping (that is supposed to be fixed in inXile internal code, but they never released the patch for it...) but not with door opening.

Only 2 successes on 20 trials with 27% odds of success does seem a bit low, but it's not that low...

In [5]: 0.27**2*0.73**18*20*19
Out[5]: 0.09601135681435334

So you've around 10% of chance of getting only two successes (and the critical failures/failures ratio is pretty much what you would expect).

eolsunder
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Re: Skill check hidden modifiers? Or mechanics misunderstanding?

Post by eolsunder » July 22nd, 2017, 5:58 pm

I found in the regular version yes, but in the DC I never saw any problems with skill checks, other than dismantling weapons.

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sear
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Re: Skill check hidden modifiers? Or mechanics misunderstanding?

Post by sear » July 23rd, 2017, 3:17 pm

People interpret odds of 35% as 1/3, which means that we tend to assume that given 2 failures, the next attempt must logically succeed. However, in reality, this isn't the case. All 35% odds mean is that you have a 35% chance of succeeding, and a 65% chance of failing, every time.

Some games will bias the numbers specifically to play into this expectation, and guarantee successful outcomes after multiple failures. Wasteland 2 doesn't tweak the numbers behind the scenes to make that happen, though. This means the numbers are "true" but it also means that there's nothing giving you an artificial boost if you get unlucky.

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