Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

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marceror
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Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by marceror » October 26th, 2015, 2:42 pm

I save scummed a bit with a Bullpup Sniper Rifle, which has a reported 35% chance to yield junk parts. In 10 attempts I got junk parts 9 times, and 1 small scope 1 time (which has a reported 10% chance).

I didn't see the long barrel at all, which has a reported 25% chance to be salvaged. Did I just really unlucky, or we the actual percentages adjusted, while the text was not?

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ClashFan
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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by ClashFan » October 26th, 2015, 3:09 pm

10 tries is too small a sample. Probably just bad luck. Now, get to 25 or 30 tries and still no long barrel, and you might have something...

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marceror
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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by marceror » October 26th, 2015, 3:47 pm

I opted to do another round of 10. I got the barrel on try # 9. So, 19 attempts to get an item that is supposedly 25% likely to be salvaged. A bit weird. I did get 3 high capacity mags in that second attempt, which is reportedly 20% likely to be salvaged. So still could have just been some bad luck on the particular item I was interested in getting.

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by MDV » October 26th, 2015, 11:09 pm

I've lurked for a little while here, and am just opportunistically commenting on this, as I just happen to have something to contribute.

I thought there was something odd about weapon stripping as well. It seems to favour junk parts and the RNG seems to trend a lot. Before I stopped playing because followers were disappearing, to make the process less tedious and annoying, I started testing that impression with some actual data. The data set is still limited, but it's a lot better than 10 samples.

The findings of stripping 7 weapons until I got what I wanted follows. 82 individual strips. TLDR: The RNG has a weapon fragment fetish.


First set, no trend recorded (oops):
50% for weapon fragments, actual parts at 10 and 40. I wanted the 10, whatever it was.
Weapon fragments: 19
40% item: 8

Actual distribution in 28 attempts:
Fragments, 68%
40% item - 29%
10% - Statistic of one. Obviously it's the remainder (and not very meaningful).

2nd weapon.
50% fragments, 25/25 for the two parts possibilities.
WF: 7
25% part number 1: 1
Fagments: 3
25% 2, what I wanted.

Actual distribution:
WF: 83%
25% Parts split the difference at ~ 8.5% each

Set three. 50/50.
WF: 17 (!)
The other thing: got it. Finally.

Actual distribution:
WF: 94.4%

And a moment to pause and reflect on the fact that this is the equivalent of throwing 17 heads in a row. Try that at home :).

'Sets' four and five were also both 50/50, and I got the thing I wanted on the first try both times. Maybe it would trend with the mod as well? Not statistically meaningful data, anyway, except in looking at what you get first and whether there's any bias to fragments there.

Weapon 6: 65% for fragments, 15 for something else, 20 for what I wanted.
WF: 9
15% item: 1
WF: 2
15%: 1
WF: 5
15%: 1
WF: 2
Got the 20%

82% for weapon frags
~14% for the 15% item.

Last, got the mod first try on 50/50.

In summary, the RNG loves to trend, pulling the statistical equivalent of 5 heads in a row routinely, and often getting up higher than that, and overall it has a pronounced bias toward weapon fragments, dropping 64 out of 82 times (78% of drops) on predominantly 50% chances (one set of 65%).

It also may have a bias for weapon fragments first, but 3 out of 7 at nearly 50/50 overall is no good for determining that.

algame
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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by algame » October 27th, 2015, 2:26 am

I have also noticed this in the DC version, particularly when i had a high weapon smithing skill and like 15% chance for scrap parts on a weapon, I am still constantly getting scrap parts rather than mods. This is driving me a bit crazy as I HATE to save scum, I usually just roll with whatever I get. But there has got to be something changed here...

I understand bugs like the vanishing NPCs will have priority but I really hope someone looks into this!!

And I havnt made any recorded tests as MDV above has, but I have played through the game to halfway through LA and stripped every spare gun i find, and there is certainly something screwy with the percentages.

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by kilobug » October 27th, 2015, 3:01 am

marceror wrote:So, 19 attempts to get an item that is supposedly 25% likely to be salvaged.
Well, 0.75^18 = 0.0056 so 0.56% chance of it occuring. With thousands of people playing the game, and each making many similar attempts, it has to happen than in 18 rows some don't get the piece they look for. Statistics and probability are weird beasts, especially on small samples (below hundreds or even better thousands).

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by Palegod » October 27th, 2015, 12:21 pm

His data is not a freakish RNG outlier, it's exactly what I see every single time I save scum to force the game to give me a mod. If I get it in less than 10 tries, I consider myself extremely lucky. Most of the time I have to settle for being glad that I installed the game on an SSD that can load a savegame in 7-8 seconds.

I've posted this several times already, but I'm pretty convinced that there's some hidden relationship between the tier of the weapon and the character's skill in weaponsmithing.

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by Drool » October 27th, 2015, 12:28 pm

Palegod wrote:His data is not a freakish RNG outlier
Correct. It's a minor blip that isn't even on the same continent as statistical significance.

20 trials is insufficient by orders of magnitude.
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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by Palegod » October 27th, 2015, 12:53 pm

Maybe he only did it once, but I've done it dozens of times now.

And no, 20 is not insufficient by multiple orders of magnitude. One OoM sure, but if you flip a coin 200 times and get ~180 heads, there's something wrong with that coin.

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by prava » October 27th, 2015, 5:06 pm

MDV wrote:I've lurked for a little while here, and am just opportunistically commenting on this, as I just happen to have something to contribute.

I thought there was something odd about weapon stripping as well. It seems to favour junk parts and the RNG seems to trend a lot. Before I stopped playing because followers were disappearing, to make the process less tedious and annoying, I started testing that impression with some actual data. The data set is still limited, but it's a lot better than 10 samples.

The findings of stripping 7 weapons until I got what I wanted follows. 82 individual strips. TLDR: The RNG has a weapon fragment fetish.


First set, no trend recorded (oops):
50% for weapon fragments, actual parts at 10 and 40. I wanted the 10, whatever it was.
Weapon fragments: 19
40% item: 8

Actual distribution in 28 attempts:
Fragments, 68%
40% item - 29%
10% - Statistic of one. Obviously it's the remainder (and not very meaningful).

2nd weapon.
50% fragments, 25/25 for the two parts possibilities.
WF: 7
25% part number 1: 1
Fagments: 3
25% 2, what I wanted.

Actual distribution:
WF: 83%
25% Parts split the difference at ~ 8.5% each

Set three. 50/50.
WF: 17 (!)
The other thing: got it. Finally.

Actual distribution:
WF: 94.4%

And a moment to pause and reflect on the fact that this is the equivalent of throwing 17 heads in a row. Try that at home :).

'Sets' four and five were also both 50/50, and I got the thing I wanted on the first try both times. Maybe it would trend with the mod as well? Not statistically meaningful data, anyway, except in looking at what you get first and whether there's any bias to fragments there.

Weapon 6: 65% for fragments, 15 for something else, 20 for what I wanted.
WF: 9
15% item: 1
WF: 2
15%: 1
WF: 5
15%: 1
WF: 2
Got the 20%

82% for weapon frags
~14% for the 15% item.

Last, got the mod first try on 50/50.

In summary, the RNG loves to trend, pulling the statistical equivalent of 5 heads in a row routinely, and often getting up higher than that, and overall it has a pronounced bias toward weapon fragments, dropping 64 out of 82 times (78% of drops) on predominantly 50% chances (one set of 65%).

It also may have a bias for weapon fragments first, but 3 out of 7 at nearly 50/50 overall is no good for determining that.
I suggest you try high-end weapons that can be salvaged into a ton of different things.

I kid you not: the AUG and other high tier assault rifles can be made into like 6 or maybe even more different things. After trying like 25 times to get an item that required 10%... I got not less than 20 broken weapon parts (and never the mod I wanted). Funny thing? Weapon parts had ALSO 10% chance of success.

So yeah, something is off.

It also happens with critical failures. A lot.

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by GObonzo » October 27th, 2015, 5:39 pm

breaking down most of the weapons from Titan Canyon and onward I've received a fair amount of the good add-on items. seems much more random than the percentages would imply but your "dice" rolls could just end you up in the unlucky percentage the majority of the time. sometimes i'll get nicer items for a few weapons in a row, sometimes crappier ones, sometimes nothing but junk parts for 20 weapons straight. doesn't matter what the percentages may point to in real life, dice rolls are always a chance game.

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by algame » October 27th, 2015, 6:10 pm

There is certainly something going on here, if anything I have had more trouble in LA with a max weapon smith skill character, 10 - 15% chance of scrap parts is consistently giving scrap, its very bizarre.

Sadly I can see this bug is going to be most likely ignored for a long time due to the attitude we can already see in a few posts here.....

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marceror
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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by marceror » October 27th, 2015, 7:01 pm

Those 19 attempts that I made for the long barrel were my first attempt at save scumming in the DC. And yeah, statistically not compelling. But, I think the thing that instinctively caused me to immediately post about this, is the fact that all through my play through so far I have been seeing an unusually large number of weapon parts compared to what I'm used to.

I'm getting my weapons modded a lot more slowly than I'm used to, and since I can sell weapon parts for a nice profit, and I'm getting tons of them, I'm filthy rich, and I've only just arrived at the prison. I have $10k in scrap, and have been buying everything and anything that I want.

So yeah, something really feels off kilter. I suppose the fact that merchants have unlimited cash to pay me now creates a whole other issue... but that's a separate thread topic.

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by rwood42 » October 28th, 2015, 12:21 pm

Out of curiosity, has anyone looked at the deconstructor perk impacting this? I know i am seeing the same thing though, nearly every weapon i strip gives WF regardless of what the percentages say.

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by rwood42 » October 28th, 2015, 2:47 pm

So, I just got home from work and decided to do some testing (my theory was that it was rolling the 25% for fragments BEFORE rolling the actual breakdown).
My process: I collected 7 different weapons, all with a 50% chance at fragments (this was whatever I happened to have in my inventory that had a 50% fragment chance) and ran three trials one with the perk on the character doing the breaking, one with the perk on a different character, and one with nobody having the perk.

With perk: 28 trials, 6 non-fragment, 78.6% (+28.6% Anomaly)
Other toon: 21 trials, 6 non-fragment, 71.4% (+21.6 Anomaly)
No perk: 28 trials, 5 non-fragment, 82.1 (+32.1 Anomaly)

So overall 77 trials with 60 fragment, for a overall anomaly of +27.9%

Conclusions: The perk is not the issue, but these results broadly match what MDV saw. Fragments are over 1.5 times more common then it should be.

Also as a side note, I did observe the perk giving 25% more fragments on average. The trials with perk averaged 13.1 and 14.8 fragments per weapon, without the perk it was 11.

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by fragelius » October 29th, 2015, 12:13 am

This driving me nuts, only getting broken parts all day everyday T___T

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by Onholyservicebound » October 29th, 2015, 2:17 am

It seems significantly harder to get weapon mods than it used to be, I'm level 12 and have consistently stripped every weapons I've come across and still have yet to completely mod up a single weapon, I've got about 4-5 mods distributed across my rangers, this is especially noticeable with grip tape, in the original game I had endless weapon mods, especially chokes and grip tape, all my rangers were fully decked out with the early mods by level 10 or so, in the DC, I've yet to find a single piece of grip tape.

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by Gruftlord » October 29th, 2015, 2:35 am

I'd much prefer if it turned out that the chances were changed for the DC, and they forgot to change the displayed percentages, i.e. The chances are actually what they are supposed to be, the error actually in the skill descriptions.

algame
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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by algame » October 29th, 2015, 6:29 pm

Gruftlord wrote:I'd much prefer if it turned out that the chances were changed for the DC, and they forgot to change the displayed percentages, i.e. The chances are actually what they are supposed to be, the error actually in the skill descriptions.
I agree I am fine with it if its a new "balance" change but it would be nice to see the real percentages, regardless I think we will be stuck with this for awhile as I doubt its in the upcoming patch, and Im sure we will keep being told we are wrong about the problem......... :roll:

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Re: Are stripping weapon percentages incorrect?

Post by vyvexthorne » October 29th, 2015, 9:24 pm

All I can figure is that these guys don't actually strip weapons.. they smash them with a hammer and hope that something good pops off.

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